With avian flu on the rise again, will egg prices follow?
Avian influenza was blamed for higher egg prices in 2023, which peaked at $4.82 per dozen in January.
By Mary Hightower
U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
April 16, 2024
Fast facts:
- Avian flu leads top egg producer to destroy 1M+ birds
- Thompson: 2024 situation is different from 2023
(320 words)
(Newsrooms: with file art)
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — As avian influenza cases rise, will consumers be paying higher prices again for eggs?
“It’s too soon to tell,” said Jada Thompson, agricultural economist with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
Avian influenza was blamed for higher egg prices in 2023, which peaked at $4.82 per dozen in January, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. By September 2023, as the supply chain recovered, egg prices dipped to $2.07 per dozen. However, prices rose again, hitting $2.99 in March 2024.
In early April, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., the nation’s largest producer of fresh eggs, said it had to destroy more than a million laying hens and more than 337,000 pullets after highly pathogenic avian influenza was detected at its facility in Parmer County, Texas. A pullet is a hen that has not begun to lay eggs.
“I don’t think this one outbreak is enough to make us see the high fluctuations we have seen,” Thompson said.
She said there are two reasons for this, “one, we haven’t had the consistent barrage against the egg industry in the same way, which meant that one large complex like this event may cause some regional price changes but won’t compound the overall price situation.
“Two, the replenishment stocks aren’t as impacted as before,” Thompson said. “Before, we had outbreaks on egg premises and on pullet and parent stock premises, meaning the birds that would replace the ones that got sick were also in short supply. That isn’t the same shortage as before, so the impact won’t take as long to recover — hopefully.”
Egg producers have also taken actions to prevent a repeat of 2023.
“Egg prices are based on current supply,” Thompson said. “I believe the market has tried to increase stocks of birds and likely are trying to compensate for potential losses.
“While you can’t predict a million-bird complex becoming infected, more replenishment stocks and a general wariness leads to substantial preparations and that is helpful for business continuity and market consistency,” she said.
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About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on five system campuses.
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Media contact: Mary Hightower
mhightower@uada.edu