NASS November numbers keep soybeans on record pace while rice, cotton close to records
The November report is significant in that it “will be the last month this calendar year that NASS will make any production adjustments,” said Scott Stiles.
By Mary Hightower
U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
Nov. 11. 2024
Fast facts
- Soybeans still on record-pace for state average yield
- Corn on track to be one bushel per acre below record yield
- Rice stalks record state average yield set last year
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(Newsrooms: with With graphs, file art of soybeans, cotton, rice.;
SUBS 11th graf to CHANGE comma to period in number of soybean acres)
JONESBORO, Ark. — Arkansas soybeans are still on track for a record state average yield with corn and rice shaping up to see their second-best average yields ever, according to the November “Crop Production” report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Friday's report is significant in that it “will be the last month this calendar year that NASS will make any production adjustments,” said Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “Final 2024 production figures for grains and soybeans will be released in January with cotton coming in May.”
Before Friday’s report, there had been some speculation that yields for soybeans and cotton might decline slightly due to damage from the remnants from hurricanes Francine and Helene.
Harvest pace made all the difference, Stiles said.
“By the end of September, corn was 95 percent harvested—so it was largely spared from the additional rains that Helene brought us,” he said. “Rice was 85 percent harvested at that time.
“Soybeans were 47 percent harvested and cotton just 21 percent so there were some adverse quality impacts from the rains we received from Francine and Helene,” Stiles said.
CORN
The report showed Arkansas corn with 640,000 acres harvested, with an expected yield of 186 bushels per acre.
“Overall, it was a really good year for corn,” said Jason Kelley, extension wheat and feed grains agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “At 186 bushels per acre state average, that’s just one bushel per acre less than the record in 2014.”
Kelley said that northeast Arkansas seemed to have the highest yields, which was “not unexpected since they were able to get planted very early this year and missed the heavy rains that other parts of the state experienced at planting.
“Timely rains this summer helped reduce irrigation needs and helped maintain our yields,” he said. “Fortunately, most of the corn was harvested before tropical storm Helene came through.”
SOYBEANS
Back in August, NASS was expecting Arkansas to have a state average of 57 bushels per acre over 3.02 million harvested acres. Stiles noted that “soybean yield was dialed down two bushels in September to 55 bushels per acre, which is still a record.”
“Looks like we're going to have another record year,” said Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “There were some quality issues after the two hurricanes came through, but I think it was isolated.
Ross said that the ones who did get hit by Francine and Helene got hit hard.
“It hurt them. But you know it was just a fraction of the production,” he said.
Ross said the quality issues for soybean growers centered on mold and mildew that hit “the beans that should have been harvested prior to Francine. Then it rained for five days with high temperatures and high humidity. Then it was another week before farmers could get in to the fields to get those knocked out.”
RICE
NASS expected rice to end the season at 7,600 pounds per acre, 30 pounds shy of the record set in 2021.
“There are still no surprises on the rice side,” said Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “I was expecting the yield to stay very close to the previous record of 7,630 pounds per acre, and possibly exceed by the time final numbers are released in January.”
Hardke said that, “unfortunately, milling yields aren’t represented in production estimates but will have a profound impact on rice supplies and markets this year.
“Reduced whole kernels from grains breaking in the milling process lowers the value of the rice, which can affect grower price and the ability to meet market demand,” he said.
COTTON
NASS pegged cotton at 485,000 harvested acres at 1,200 pounds of lint per acre. That’s down from its September estimate of 1,238 pounds of lint per acre. The current record of 1,295 pounds per acre was set last year. However, the situation for cotton was still looking positive.
Was damage from Francine and Helene an issue?
“I think that's a fair assumption on the cotton revision,” said Zachary Treadway, extension cotton and peanut agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “While we fared better than we might have expected, there was inevitably going to be some yield decrease. I am still hearing from producers and consultants that are making very impressive yields.”
“With more favorable weather in October, sample grades for cotton did show improvement throughout October, Stiles said. “But, the September rain did cost growers close to $25 per acre in lower color grades and higher leaf content.”
PEANUTS
Arkansas was expected to yield 5,300 pounds of peanuts per acre, an estimate unchanged since August. The current record for peanut yield in Arkansas is 5,800 pounds set last year. The 44,000 acres of peanuts in Arkansas is a new record, besting the previous record of 41,000 set in 1943.
“As for peanuts, that the final number will be worth watching, as we are seeing some untimely rains, and producers are having a hard time getting trailers in the field in some instances,” Treadway said. “Those two factors combine to force peanuts to lay on the ground longer than is optimal, and we could see yield loss as a result.”
The National Agricultural Statistics Service is part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on five system campuses.
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs to all eligible persons without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.
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Media contact: Mary Hightower
mhightower@uada.edu