UADA report: Global rice production expected to grow through 2035
June 16, 2026
By Mary Hightower
University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture
Fast Facts
- Rice consumption in Africa expected to increase
- Rice consumption in China, South Korea expected to decline with population
- Cambodia expected to replace the U.S. as No. 5 global exporter
(1,343 words)
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FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Global rice production is projected to continue growing through 2035, with demand exceeding production and African consumption rising, according to the International Rice Outlook: International Rice Baseline Projections 2025–2035.
The outlook, written by Alvaro Durand-Morat, associate professor, and Willy Mulimbi, post-doctoral fellow, is an annual publication by the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program of the department of agricultural economics and agribusiness at the University of Arkansas.
It is part of the research conducted by the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station of the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture. It is published in concert with FAPRI, the Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute of the University of Missouri.
“Our results indicate a continuous rice deficit — demand exceeding production — from 2026 to 2035,” the authors wrote. The deficit “will be annually offset by the release of stocks on the supply side.
“As such, global ending stocks are projected to keep declining slowly during the projected period,” the authors said.
Durand-Morat offered one caveat: The report projections are based on trends observed up to January 2026.
“A lot has happened since then. War in Iran with prices for energy, fertilizer and other inputs increasing,” he said. “There is also growing concern about an El Niño, which affects the world in different ways. In South America, it means excessive rain, and in Asia, primarily in India, it means drought.”
Those factors will be included in a future report.
Rise of African markets
Asia is expected to see increases in production and consumption, “but Africa is expected to become more relevant from a consumption point of view in the next decade,” the authors said. Africa “will consolidate its position as the second-largest rice-consuming continent in 2033-35.”
“Rice has become a staple in West Africa,” Durand-Morat said. “They used to rely more on maize and cassava as staples, but right now, rice is the main staple in many of those countries.”
The roots of this growth were laid down almost two decades ago.
African countries were “eating more than they were producing,” he said, adding that “consumption of rice has been driven by imports.”
However, “after the 2007-8 food crisis, rice prices went through the roof,” Durand-Morat said.
“Many African countries said, ‘we need to do something about production, because we are too exposed to the international market through imports’.”
Most of the rice imported to Africa is being supplied by Asia — primarily India, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan — countries with highly competitive prices, he said.
“Rice in Africa is being driven by urban consumption,” Durand-Morat said, adding that countries like “Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, the Ivory Coast and Senegal all have good port infrastructure to bring in imports.”
“With imports being so cheap, it’s very, very hard to compete with Indian rice, which limits the economic incentives to invest in rice-growing infrastructure,” he said.
Production decreases
Rice production is projected to decrease in Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Madagascar due to losses in area harvested.
“In Vietnam, there’s been an effort to lower the intensity of rice production,” he said. The country produces rice in two main areas, the Mekong Delta in the south and the Red River Delta in the northeast.
“About 50 percent of the production comes from the Mekong Delta, and in some cases, they produce three crops a year,” Durand-Morat said. “This is not very good for soil and sustainability.
“The government has, for many years, tried to bring in other crops like crawfish into rotation to reduce the intensity,” he said.
Vietnamese farming is also facing increasing soil salinity from an encroaching sea as constant aquifer use causes land to subside as the aquifer levels below sink.
Industry observers believe “Vietnamese production won’t be able to stay where they’re at now,” he said.
During the period of the projection, production is expected to grow the most in Tanzania, Pakistan, Peru, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Nigeria and Cambodia relative to the production levels observed in 2022–2024.
Consumption declines with populations
Total rice consumption is projected to decline in Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and China, and to increase strongly in Tanzania, Pakistan, India, the United States, Madagascar, Nigeria, Peru, and the Philippines relative to 2022–2024.
“It is well documented that rice per capita consumption is decreasing and has been decreasing in Japan and South Korea for many years,” Durand-Morat said. “Their population growth is non-existent or negative, so that pushes total consumption down.”
In China, “the population growth goes negative starting in 2021. China being the most populous consumer of rice and the second-largest producer, and many of their policies being geared toward self-sufficiency, that is a major shift,” he said. “With the population going down and per-capita consumption going down, what will happen with those policies?”
Shuffle in the rankings
The authors said that “India will continue to lead global exports, while Thailand and Vietnam are projected to remain the second- and third-largest rice exporters, respectively.
Pakistan is No. 4, and Cambodia replaces the U.S. in the list of the top five global exporters.
When faced with the volumes of rice India and Thailand are able to export, the U.S. will not have an easy time gaining more of a foothold in the global rice market.
“Things don’t look very rosy for long grain rice in the U.S.,” he said. “Everything is pretty flat.”
“We import a lot of jasmine and basmati, which are counted as long grain, and so if that trend continues, we will become a net importer of rice by the end of the estimation period,” Durand-Morat said.
Factors shaping the future market
- China’s ending stocks — In 2022-24, China has maintained rice stocks amounting to more than 70 percent of its consumption, as part of a national food security strategy. “Given the large stock-to-use ratio projected for the next decade, a scenario in which China could sell some of its large rice stocks in the international market should not be ruled out,” the report said.
- India’s production and policies — India has dominated international rice production. Innovations such as the use of high-yielding and flood and drought-tolerant rice varieties, the development of irrigation infrastructure and the use of chemical fertilizer, have seen the country’s production explode from 83 million metric tons in 2004 to 150 million metric tons in 2024. While India’s rate of production is expected to slow in the coming decade, the report predicts it will continue to be the No. 1 producer and exporter of rice in the next decade.
“With India’s dominance, we expect the international rice market to find an equilibrium at much lower prices, unless unforeseen shocks to the global rice economy surface in or outside India,” the report said.
- The rice price gap — The international price of long grain rice — represented by Thai 100 percent Grade B rice — was expected to reach its lowest level in 15 years in 2025 and grow slowly and reach an average of $498 metric ton in 2033-2035. U.S. long grain rice was expected to reach $607 per metric ton by 2033-35. The report projects that “the price gap between long grain rice from Asia and the Western Hemisphere will narrow over the next decade. Such a projected rice price trend suggests a higher likelihood that Asian rice will become a better option for buyers in the Western Hemisphere and, thus, compete more directly with U.S. and [South American] rice.”
Past, present and future
Durand-Morat said he began working on the report in 2016. Over the years, the report has evolved, overlaying a risk-assessment component and adding key market variables.
Its 10-year scope of projection aligns with the Congressional requirements for benchmarking agricultural policy proposals, such as those conducted by the Congressional Budget Office.
“They have to benchmark every policy that comes through Congress. And for ag policy,
the benchmark is a 10-year benchmark,” he said.“That’s why we do the 10-year projections.”
Once the reports are published, they are distributed to colleagues around the world.
The model used to create the report includes 72 countries, and while Durand-Morat spends a lot of time reading about rice, he said he “cannot be up to speed on 72 countries.”
“It’s about sharing the report with people from Central and South America, from Africa and Asia, and asking, ‘does this make sense?’,” he said.
Durand-Morat said he appreciates the input and even criticism he receives.
“It makes this report better,” he said.
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The University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
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Media contact:
Nick Kordsmeier
nkordsme@uada.edu