Trade experts: U.S. shouldn’t fixate on China
March 30, 2026
By the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
Fast Facts:
- China is investing in SE Asia, Mexico
- Vetter: SE Asia a growing market for value-added products
- Muhammad: U.S. should invest in growing sub-Saharan markets
(625 words)
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(Newsrooms: with sidebar: India’s rice policies under the microscope)
MORRILTON, Ark. — While the decline of American agricultural exports to China remains front and center, the U.S. should widen its focus to Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, experts in international trade said at the March edition of the Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lecture Series.
The event, focused on agricultural trade and hosted by the Winthrop Rockefeller Institute near Morrilton, provided a wide-ranging discussion on China, Cuba, tariffs and emerging markets for America’s farm products.
The program opened with a panel discussion. George Dunklin, founder and president of the Five Oaks Research and Education Center in Humphrey, Arkansas, moderated the conversation between Darci Vetter, principal at Sower Strategies LLC, in Washington, D.C., and Andrew Muhammad, professor and Blasingame Chair of Excellence for the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture.
The panel discussion was followed by a keynote address by Stephen Alexander Vaden, the U.S. deputy secretary of Agriculture. Vaden previously served as a judge of the U.S. Court of International Trade.
China is an important trading partner for the U.S. — ranking third behind Mexico and Canada — for all goods, not just agricultural products. China had been the largest buyer of soybeans and cotton, and the U.S. was China’s third-largest supplier of beef.
From early May through the end of August 2025, soybean exports to China dropped to effectively zero. Cotton exports to China by late 2025, had dropped to 15 percent of the volume during 2020-23. Between January and September, U.S. beef exports to China fell from $814 million in 2024 to $442 million in 2025.
Vaden warned of problems “if we become overly dependent on any one country in world trade.”
“The Chinese government has been very open in their public statements that they view their dependence on imports from agricultural commodities from any country as a national security risk of the first order,” he said. “They are keen to cut it. They have done so with cotton, and they’ve got plans to do so with other major commodities like soy and corn.
“They’re using their own domestic cotton production in the clothes that we wear,” he said. “This is a problem for the entire international market, but this is not an accident of history.”
China is also making investments elsewhere. Muhammad said that once-low wages in China have risen, and the country is sending its textile, furniture and flooring manufacturing operations to southeast Asia and Mexico.
“We import things that we just simply don’t produce, and we’re satisfying a demand that we simply can’t satisfy on our own,” Muhammad said. “We are going to have to make our peace with China.”
Vetter said the U.S. needs to have a mix of established and emerging markets for its products.
“If you look to Southeast Asia, that is an area where you have multiple countries that are already good customers that have growing populations and growing incomes at the same time,” she said. While the U.S. also sends raw materials there, Southeast Asia is a region where consumer “appetite for a broader variety of high-value products continues to grow.”
“When it comes to high-value-added food products, Darci’s 100 percent correct,” Muhammad said. “Southeast Asia seems to be thriving.”
However, “we really do need to think about Sub-Saharan Africa and try to get into
that market quite early. It’s not so good to allow a market to grow and then to try
to step in,” he said, adding that the emerging middle class in the region could lead
to demand for U.S. products.
Vaden said that “if we focus all of our attention on how much we can sell to that
one country ... we are putting ourselves at their mercy and allowing them to turn
the ratchet against us should tensions unfortunately inflame” in the coming years.
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About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land-grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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Media Contact:
Nick Kordsmeier
nkordsme@uada.edu