July USDA report lifts soybean, corn futures
July 21, 2026
By Mary Hightower
University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture
Fast Facts
- USDA estimating record soybean production
- Soybean prices are highest since 2023/24 marketing year
(825 words)
JONESBORO, Ark. — Corn futures got a lift from this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which also forecast the highest soybean prices since the 2023/24 marketing year.
WASDE is a monthly report that forecasts the global and U.S. supply, demand and price for major agricultural commodities. It serves as the global benchmark for agribusinesses, farmers, and traders to make production, trading, and pricing decisions.
Ending stocks, or what’s left of a commodity after accounting for production, imports and demand, are a key part of the report. The report looks at “old crop” supplies — previously harvested and stored commodities — and “new crop” supplies — crops currently being grown that have not yet been harvested.
Crop marketing years, often expressed by a range of years such as 2023/24, vary by commodity. The current crop marketing year for corn and soybeans is 2026/27.
“USDA’s adjustments to the old and new crop balance sheets were price-friendly to the grains, with ending stocks coming in slightly below pre-report expectations,” said Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture. “Market reaction following the July 10 report was positive, with December corn and November soybean futures both closing 9 cents higher on the day.”
Corn
Compared to the June WASDE report, USDA increased its 2025/26 crop corn feed and residual estimate by 150 million bushels. That increase was partly offset by an expected 25-million-bushel reduction in corn used for ethanol. Net changes in July reduced 2025/26 corn ending stocks by 125 million to 2.02 billion bushels.
Stiles said the U.S. average yield was unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre.
“With total supply falling by a net 120 million bushels and exports increasing by 50 million, ending stocks were reduced by 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion,” he said.
Stiles said the projected season-average farm price for the 2026/27 crop was $4.40 per bushel, up from an estimated $4.15 per bushel for the 2025/26 crop year.
Soybeans
USDA increased its estimate of 2025/26 soybean crop exports by 10 million bushels and reduced ending stocks by the same amount, falling to 330 million bushels.
New crop production was increased by 40 million bushels to a record projection of
4.475 billion bushels, Stiles said. Harvested acres were increased by roughly 700,000
from the June WASDE projection, with the yield forecast of 53 bushels remaining unchanged.
“Regarding demand, soybean crush was unchanged at a record 2.75 billion bushels, and
exports were increased by 30 million bushels to 1.66 billion on the larger crop size
and stronger global demand,” Stiles said. “Overall, higher supplies were offset by
an increase in exports, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels.
“The forecast 2026/27 season-average farm price was also unchanged at $11.40 per bushel, up from $10.40 last year and the highest average farm price since reaching $12.40 in the 2023/24 marketing year,” he said.
Rice
The most notable change to the new crop long-grain rice balance sheet was an 18.4 million hundredweight reduction in crop size, Stiles said.
“Production was lowered this month from 122.5 million to 104.1 million hundredweight on data from the June Acreage survey,” he said. “This would be the smallest U.S. long-grain production since 1993, when farmers produced 103.1 million hundredweight.
“On lower domestic production, USDA increased 2026/27 imports by 4 million to a record 43 million hundredweight. The increase in imports was offset by an identical 4-million-hundredweight reduction in beginning stocks,” he said.
The 18.4-million-hundredweight decrease in total supply was only partially offset by a 7 million hundredweight reduction in domestic use, now projected at 116 million hundredweight.
With long-grain ending stocks tightening, “the season average farm price was increased by $1.50 per hundredweight this month to $13.50 per hundredweight or $6.08 per bushel,” Stiles said.
Cotton
USDA increased U.S. cotton production in July by 400,000 bales to 13.7 million. 2026/27 planted and harvested acreage estimates were increased 2 percent from June. The national average yield was raised 6 pounds to 872 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting increased area in Georgia and Mississippi and reduced acreage in the Southwest.
“There were no changes to supply and demand in the 2025/26 U.S. balance sheet in July,” Stiles said. “The 2025/26 season-average farm price was lowered half a cent to 62.5 cents per pound. The 2026/27 average farm price remained steady at 73 cents per pound.”
Looking ahead
Stiles said the August WASDE will be a closely watched report. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will be surveying growers from July 25-Aug. 5 for their thoughts on yield potential.
“August will have the first survey-based yield projections of the year,” he said. “The report could have some acreage, yield and production changes,” he said.
USDA’s Farm Service Agency will also release its first certified acreage report on Aug. 12.
“That is always interesting to compare with the NASS June Acreage report,” Stiles said. “Based on the FSA reporting, there could be some adjustments to crop acres.
“You might say the August WASDE is a transitional report,” he said. “It incorporates some concrete, on-the-ground data from growers and satellite imagery, as well as information from other USDA agencies like FSA and Risk Management Agency.”
To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Facebook and Instagram. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit uada.edu. To learn more about ag and food research in Arkansas, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station at aaes.uada.edu.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land-grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 22 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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