Drought among factors jostling cattle markets
Oct. 26, 2026
By Mary Hightower
University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture
Fast Facts
- Drought increases input costs for some
- Mitchell: ‘Fundamentals should support cattle prices through the end of 2026.’
(339 words)
Download photo of James Mitchell
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FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Regional cattle markets are not only reflecting the impacts of drought, but also policy changes on beef imports and the limited reopening of the southern border to cattle from Mexico, said James Mitchell, extension livestock economist for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.
“Drought is usually a regional problem, so the market impact will also be regional,” Mitchell said. “Some early weaning and a few more cows are showing up, but we were in a drought last year too.”
In August, the White House announced a plan to suspend tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported lean beef trimmings to the United States, a move meant to reduce beef prices for consumers. An analysis by the American Farm Bureau found that the average price of ground beef moved from $7.29 a pound on Sept. 2 to $7.13 a pound on Sept. 23 — a reduction of 16 cents or approximately 2 percent.
Border crossings for cattle imports that were closed in late 2025 due to the spread of New World Screwworm in Mexico are also undergoing a phased reopening by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The crossing at Douglas, Arizona, was reopened in August, with the New Mexico ports of Santa Teresa and Columbus to open next.
“Tight cattle supplies continue to support prices, but unexpected policy changes have added uncertainty,” Mitchell said. “The phased reopening of southern ports to Mexican cattle and a temporary increase in lean beef import quotas have been two main sources of uncertainty for cattle markets.
“Higher input costs and an August corn rally have also complicated things and added to this year's volatility,” he said. “Drought pressure and policy shocks likely pushed feeder cattle markets to their seasonal low earlier than normal in September.
“Cull cow prices could still face downward pressure as the Trump administration’s policy to import more lean beef continues into its second month,” Mitchell said. “There is no telling what will happen next with that policy. Overall, fundamentals should support cattle prices through the end of 2026.”
To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Facebook and Instagram. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit uada.edu. To learn more about ag and food research in Arkansas, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station at aaes.uada.edu.
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- Drought raises nitrate risks in forage, boosts costs for ranchers
- Arkansas may see drought relief over the winter
- Rotational grazing a key practice to maintain forage in drought
About UADA
The University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, UADA conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
UADA is one of 22 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three university campuses.
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